As If On Cue…

So I just made a post a couple days ago about Exaggerating, Cherry Picking, Low Sample Sizes, and RNG and how these lead to forum threads that are founded upon baseless accusation rather than simple logic or math. Now take a wild guess at what the most popular Battle.net topic is right now? Yep, it’s someone accusing Blizzard of stealth nerfing item drops.

Of course, the thread is upvoted enough times as to be “Highly Rated,” yet when you read through it, it is basically a train of myths spread in typical conspiracy theory fashion, created by emotion and confirmation bias, and then instantly agreed upon by anyone wanting something to vent at. Here’s the full OP by Enxius:

At first I thought I was imagining this, RNG..I told myself. I just have to farm Act 3 20 more clears and eventually one of these 500 yellows i identify will have high stats on it. For sure. I mean, its all RNG right? I was getting good gear and good lvl 63 drops several times every day before patch 1.0.3 – items with high base stats high modifiers all day long, so, big deal if I hit a bad luck streak – it will pass.

I can deal with RNG its a blizzard game randomness is part of it i told my self….

Randomness MY TIGHTLY PUCKERED SCHPHINCTOR.

Blizzard increased the rates that yellows drop, and they nurfed the holy hell out of the possibility of them being high stats.

So now all level 63’s that drop have stats of a level 59

There is some serious dishonest shadyness going on on Blizzards side and it’s for real, its not debatable.

I have been farming this game 24/7 since midnight of may 15th the day of release and doing nothing but farming since then no work no school Farming and ONLY farming in Diablo 3.

Blizzard lied to you. They didn’t increase the loot like they tried to imply. They made it so a bunch of crappy yellows drop now to make you THINK you have a chance of getting some good gear.

They stealth nurfed the quality of level 63 items.

This data is based off of FACT – 5000+ items identified over the course these past 7 days and over 70..SEVENTY full Act 3 clears and comparing the average of these items with the average stats of items from 2 weeks ago.

The same quality items arent dropping. Wake up and realize Blizzards BS people.

Notice the complete lack of useful stats that is typically associated with conspiracy theories. Sure he put up numbers like “5000+ items identified,” but he gave no indication as to what numbers he was rolling before and after. If he actually had data that showed that the average +Vitality roll before was 75, and afterwards it was only 43, that would be some real data and a compelling argument. But with the vague way he actually writes it, you can already see where the argument crumbles.

His argument is that item level 63 items were stealth nerfed. As aforementioned, he completely failed to give any useful stats on how it was nerfed, and even the numbers he did put up don’t match his argument. He claims to have done 70 Act 3 runs and identified 5000+ items. Even at exactly 5000 items, that is averaging 71 items per run.

There is no way you can get 71 ilvl 63 rares in one run. The poster must have been including all yellows he identified, including ilvl 55 yellows, ilvl 61 yellows, etc.

So the fact that he says, “They stealth nurfed the quality of level 63 items,” immediately followed by, “This data is based off of FACT – 5000+ items identified over the course these past 7 days,” is extremely misleading, because the 5000+ items he identified were in the vast majority not item level 63s.

Now, let us see how gullible some people actually are and how willingly they go along with conspiracy theories that they want to believe in. The following are actual replies:

Agreed.

doing several Act 1 runs
30-100pcs blue and rares
all of them are trashes

I’ve been dutifully farming the hell out of A2 inferno, and I’ve also noticed the significant drop in quality. I’ve figured I’ve been on a bad luck streak for about a week.. so I don’t know.

This is definitely the case. I was getting plenty of good rolls in act 3 prior to 1.03. They then nerf the crap out of it. It’s quite obvious…

I can say the exact same things as the OP.

Agreed. My typical treasure gobo farm spot in act 2 is dropping terrible loot even with 200 mf. im lucky to get rares now but before a week or so ago i was getting legendaries and set pieces at least once a day

Now let’s see some other responses went:

I have been playing for less than 100 hours since the game came out and thought I would never find any good items. So I decided with that in mind I would just have fun talking with friends over skype while I do some mindless farming to pass the time over our conversations. Then, last night we decide to do Belial without any NV stacks just to push to A3. No one in the party had any magic find on. An amulet dropped for me with the following stats:
+11 min damage
244 Int
233 Vit
+44 All Res
CD 53%
TL:DR – Rng is rng. Sorry your luck is not very good.

Hem. Ok?
Show us the data, don’t just talk about it?
Or did you compare that mentally?

Random is Random, sorry you got screwed

Seriously, it’s random.
Considering how loot stats are distributed and how they have absolutely no restrictions (like say not mixing Dex with Int or Str, etc) makes it incredibly rare to get an item with the perfect rolled stats.
I’ve done runs where I’ve had like 5 ilvl 63 items out of 20 and they were all crap.
I’ve also had runs where I got 10 ilvl63s out of 20 and half of them were 700+DPS 1h weapons with LOH (in fact, the weapon I have was a DROP, I did not buy it off the AH (760dps, 900-LOH and dex).
Blizzard just needs to make itemization better, it has nothing to do with STEALTH NERF or low drop rate. You’re getting ilvl 63 loot, just with crappy stats, that’s not a nerf, that’s just how the game is right now.

Yesterday I got the best drop ever for me, lvl 63 fist wep 1100+ DPS, but only 111dex and 450 LOH

this game is not for you. you should play a different game.
you sound like an idiot. “if I play the lottery 20 more times maybe ill win a million dollars!”

I hardly play at all compared to you… I’ve gotten good drops.

Here are a couple replies from the original poster himself:

Hidden footprints could explain 50 hours, and possibly 1000-2000 pieces of 60+ ilvl loot.
But these footprints after 5000 pieces of loot and 200 hours of grinding they lead straight to a lying greedy companys boardroom.

5000 items everyone one of which is crappy isnt ‘bad luck’ lol.
Not when previous to 1.0.3 one outa every 50 items was good.
Sorry.

So now let’s summarize this.

The OP makes an incredibly misleading argument by saying ilvl 63 drops were nerfed, immediately followed by saying he identified 5000+ rares. Of course, only a fraction of these were ilvl 63, and even so, he included no data on what the roll numbers actually were.

Many people jump on board the bandwagon or conspiracy train, saying they have noticed the same things. Meanwhile, other people argue RNG or show good items they have found themselves.

The OP responds to these people by repeatedly invoking the “5000 items” stat, even when 5000 could have been massively exaggerated. This is not to mention the fact that only a fraction of the 5000 items are even ilvl 63.

No wonder Blizzard CMs can sound fed up with the forums sometimes. I don’t blame them. The amount of idiocy they have to put up with is quite absurd. In fact, because of this one thread, I have a whole new appreciation for Bashiok, Lylirra, and the like.

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